Oil is the flavor of the day now, but that is going to change. There is absolutely no way the West is going to allow the present paradigm continue indefinitely; great efforts and sacrifices are going to be made to change it. Who believes that they will rest their strategic energy policy on the current global energy model? This is a system that has them at the mercy of ambivalent, unstable and downright hostile powers. Also, the “Green” community has gained incredible momentum politically, socially and, very importantly, scientifically such that energy security and environmental concerns now have a common objective of ending their reliance on oil. We are in the oil dominance end game.
If anyone doubts what it will mean for the profitability of oil should the west move off oil, consider the effects the economic slow down in the US is having on the price; from a high of 130/140 dollars, the price of a barrel has dropped to under a 100 dollars in a little over 6 weeks. What this means is, just because America is spending a lot less on gasoline (just gasoline), the demand drop has been very sharp. So imagine what would happen should America move of oil completely; the price of a barrel would be at par with that of a loaf of bread. And you can be sure the US won’t move alone-the UK and Western Europe would move too.
Conventional wisdom here has it that, should Nigeria’s oil finish tomorrow, it would be a most excellent thing. I understand the sentiment. The barbaric greed and avarice that has spawned the incomprehensible under-development of Nigeria is blamed in part on the “free” money oil provides; it is not an industry that requires too much local content or investment, we are paid just for the fact that we have oil in our land. Inherently it doesn’t breed any type of expertise or skill sets that would distinguish the nation in any field of endeavor. Its “free” revenue: we don’t have to lift a finger to earn it or worry too much about how we spend it. It breeds a financial mercenary type attitude in those who are in positions of power. We are at ease in this monolithic economic bubble. The mantra is, “getasmuchasyoucanforyourself”.
Therefore if the oil finished, so would the free revenue and then we would be forced to face reality. Can you imagine Nigeria not been able to source 10 million dollars in 6 months? I will not go there… no more state allocations, no money to pay salaries, the sudden realization that we are not skilled enough to be part of the global press for investment and markets, the way we would so disappear from the world’s radar screen and nobody would care…I will not go there.
I have heard this sentiment from eminent people like Simon Kolawole, Wole Soyinka et al, and while I understand the sentiment, I do not agree with it. Oil should have been an easy way out for us, the means by which we took our great leap into the post industrial revolution age, and integrated ourselves into the global economy proper. Look at the Gulf States. No developmental suffering for them, they have no need to borrow from anybody, they are not at anyone’s mercy, they have the advantage (as we do) of standing with the best because of their oil revenue. Simply put, they are not re-inventing the wheel. Look at their HUGE Sovereign Wealth Funds. (Can you believe they have started supporting aid work here?)Building their infrastructure to beyond world class, leveraging their oil income to invest and take huge positions in the global economy, training a lot of their young people in the best schools and universities in the west and luring knowledge investments in their economies. They have a vision beyond oil and are positioning themselves as financial and business hubs in their regions by establishing financial centers, luring top financial institutions to establish a significant presence in their territories and developing programs that encourage entrepreneurship. They are building excellent healthcare systems. They are luring top sportsmen and women so that their sporting events acquire top prestige, they are buying a 100 A380 planes to modernize their fleets such that in the next 10 years they would be able to compete with the best anywhere and above all, they are branding themselves so aggressively, we all believe what they are saying about themselves.
These people will not suffer should oil become another commodity tomorrow. They are taking the high speed express to join the global economy without all the grunt work of those who don’t have the resources. They are taking full advantage of their opportunities. Why won’t we do the same? We are a nation of 150 million people living in a land that has enough space; we have the fortune of earning this ‘free’ money all these Gulf States are earning. We don’t have to suffer in the coming Green Revolution. Our revenues can power education, power an agriculture renaissance (why are we even whining about the west’s farming subsidies when we can play that game better?), power a revolution in the financial sector. Does anyone think that 25 billion naira is the end? Why can’t our financial institutions take advantage of current market conditions to buy companies like Lehman Brothers, AIG? What is so hard about that? 250 million dollars? 1.2 billion dollars? Odili stole more than that in his first 6 months in office. Why aren’t we building world class infrastructure, organizing events that bring the world to our doors? We have the unique opportunity of putting together a coherent national development plan without thinking too much of how to get the resources to execute.
We are not ready and we will suffer for it. The collective body language of our leaders (political, cultural, and business) and those-in-waiting in Nigeria is greed. We are so blinded by it, they cannot see beyond their eyelashes. All we are good for is their stomachs. I do not know whether to attribute this to a lack of exposure or just plain gross illiteracy. Its totally overwhelming. It is totally beyond belief. I have run into a few and I am aghast at the things that concern us, the issues that occupy our minds. I am often struck by a feeling that we are driven by an inferiority complex; we try to show themselves by the cars we drive, the houses we have, the size of our bank accounts, the cultural respect we’ve earned and so on; mine-is-bigger-than-yours. And yes, its both men and women. We have no self interest or self love that I can see-what is on display is just gross stupidity.
We need a renaissance. We need a renewal in the attitude of our minds. We need to wakeup and make hay while the sun still shines. The Night cometh.
If anyone doubts what it will mean for the profitability of oil should the west move off oil, consider the effects the economic slow down in the US is having on the price; from a high of 130/140 dollars, the price of a barrel has dropped to under a 100 dollars in a little over 6 weeks. What this means is, just because America is spending a lot less on gasoline (just gasoline), the demand drop has been very sharp. So imagine what would happen should America move of oil completely; the price of a barrel would be at par with that of a loaf of bread. And you can be sure the US won’t move alone-the UK and Western Europe would move too.
Conventional wisdom here has it that, should Nigeria’s oil finish tomorrow, it would be a most excellent thing. I understand the sentiment. The barbaric greed and avarice that has spawned the incomprehensible under-development of Nigeria is blamed in part on the “free” money oil provides; it is not an industry that requires too much local content or investment, we are paid just for the fact that we have oil in our land. Inherently it doesn’t breed any type of expertise or skill sets that would distinguish the nation in any field of endeavor. Its “free” revenue: we don’t have to lift a finger to earn it or worry too much about how we spend it. It breeds a financial mercenary type attitude in those who are in positions of power. We are at ease in this monolithic economic bubble. The mantra is, “getasmuchasyoucanforyourself”.
Therefore if the oil finished, so would the free revenue and then we would be forced to face reality. Can you imagine Nigeria not been able to source 10 million dollars in 6 months? I will not go there… no more state allocations, no money to pay salaries, the sudden realization that we are not skilled enough to be part of the global press for investment and markets, the way we would so disappear from the world’s radar screen and nobody would care…I will not go there.
I have heard this sentiment from eminent people like Simon Kolawole, Wole Soyinka et al, and while I understand the sentiment, I do not agree with it. Oil should have been an easy way out for us, the means by which we took our great leap into the post industrial revolution age, and integrated ourselves into the global economy proper. Look at the Gulf States. No developmental suffering for them, they have no need to borrow from anybody, they are not at anyone’s mercy, they have the advantage (as we do) of standing with the best because of their oil revenue. Simply put, they are not re-inventing the wheel. Look at their HUGE Sovereign Wealth Funds. (Can you believe they have started supporting aid work here?)Building their infrastructure to beyond world class, leveraging their oil income to invest and take huge positions in the global economy, training a lot of their young people in the best schools and universities in the west and luring knowledge investments in their economies. They have a vision beyond oil and are positioning themselves as financial and business hubs in their regions by establishing financial centers, luring top financial institutions to establish a significant presence in their territories and developing programs that encourage entrepreneurship. They are building excellent healthcare systems. They are luring top sportsmen and women so that their sporting events acquire top prestige, they are buying a 100 A380 planes to modernize their fleets such that in the next 10 years they would be able to compete with the best anywhere and above all, they are branding themselves so aggressively, we all believe what they are saying about themselves.
These people will not suffer should oil become another commodity tomorrow. They are taking the high speed express to join the global economy without all the grunt work of those who don’t have the resources. They are taking full advantage of their opportunities. Why won’t we do the same? We are a nation of 150 million people living in a land that has enough space; we have the fortune of earning this ‘free’ money all these Gulf States are earning. We don’t have to suffer in the coming Green Revolution. Our revenues can power education, power an agriculture renaissance (why are we even whining about the west’s farming subsidies when we can play that game better?), power a revolution in the financial sector. Does anyone think that 25 billion naira is the end? Why can’t our financial institutions take advantage of current market conditions to buy companies like Lehman Brothers, AIG? What is so hard about that? 250 million dollars? 1.2 billion dollars? Odili stole more than that in his first 6 months in office. Why aren’t we building world class infrastructure, organizing events that bring the world to our doors? We have the unique opportunity of putting together a coherent national development plan without thinking too much of how to get the resources to execute.
We are not ready and we will suffer for it. The collective body language of our leaders (political, cultural, and business) and those-in-waiting in Nigeria is greed. We are so blinded by it, they cannot see beyond their eyelashes. All we are good for is their stomachs. I do not know whether to attribute this to a lack of exposure or just plain gross illiteracy. Its totally overwhelming. It is totally beyond belief. I have run into a few and I am aghast at the things that concern us, the issues that occupy our minds. I am often struck by a feeling that we are driven by an inferiority complex; we try to show themselves by the cars we drive, the houses we have, the size of our bank accounts, the cultural respect we’ve earned and so on; mine-is-bigger-than-yours. And yes, its both men and women. We have no self interest or self love that I can see-what is on display is just gross stupidity.
We need a renaissance. We need a renewal in the attitude of our minds. We need to wakeup and make hay while the sun still shines. The Night cometh.
